Gold Miners: The Unloved Opportunity of 2025
Barrick Gold and Newmont: The Last Call Before These Mining Giants Catch Up to Record Gold Prices
As markets chase the latest AI darlings and meme stock frenzies, a quiet opportunity has been developing in one of the world's oldest industries. Gold mining stocks have spent nearly a decade in the wilderness, creating what might be one of the most compelling asymmetric opportunities in today's market.
The Opportunity Nobody's Talking About
While gold prices have recently hit all-time highs, something strange has happened—gold mining stocks have barely moved in comparison. Since 1984, gold miners have underperformed the S&P 500 by a staggering 96%. This disconnect creates a fascinating setup for investors willing to look where others aren't.
US dollar spot price for 1 ounce
Gold mining companies have spent years improving their operations—strengthening balance sheets, lowering production costs, and focusing on shareholder returns. Yet the market continues to price them as if bankruptcy is imminent.
This is exactly the kind of asymmetric setup we look for—where downside is limited but upside potential is substantial.
Two Prime Candidates Worth Watching
Barrick Gold (GOLD) - $19.35
The Bull Case:
Trading at a P/E of just 15.57 (Forward P/E: 13.13)
Strong revenue growth: $12.92 billion (TTM), up 13.38% year-over-year
Impressive net income growth: $2.14 billion, reflecting a 68.55% increase
Pays a 2.07% dividend yield
The Risk Factors:
Operational challenges in Mali, where the government has seized approximately three metric tons of gold due to disputes over alleged unpaid taxes
Inflationary pressures affecting profit margins despite rising gold prices
Geopolitical risks in certain operating regions
Newmont Corporation (NEM) - $47.55
The Bull Case:
World's largest gold producer following strategic acquisitions
P/E ratio of 16.63 (Forward P/E: 14.12)
Strong TTM revenue of $18.68 billion
Healthy $3.35 billion net income (TTM)
2.10% dividend yield
Lower volatility than the market (Beta: 0.56)
The Risk Factors:
Margin pressure from higher labor costs and persistent inflation
Regulatory challenges in Mexico regarding proposed increases in mining royalties
Complex integration of recent acquisitions
The Window Is Closing
The disconnect between gold prices and mining stocks is beginning to narrow. Mining stocks starting to move, we're witnessing the early stages of what could be a significant catch-up rally.
What are your thoughts on mining stocks? Let's discuss in the comment section!
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am not a professional financial advisor. The information provided is speculative in nature, and you should conduct your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. Only you are responsible for your investment choices and their outcomes.





Yes I have been following gold for about 3 years now and I think your recommendations have value in it...
Thank you
Great article on a topic that few people are talking about! I definitely want to dig into those 2 companies!